The Inevitability of Ukraine

I’m provoked by this worthwhile piece on Ukraine from the comrades at the Rosa Luxembourg Stiftung It is more right than wrong, but I have a few reactions.

The idea that NATO designs on Russia are motivated by hopes of an alliance against China sounds batty to me.

The NATO-Russia tug-of-war over Ukraine is inescapable. The idea that NATO provoked the invasion suggests that in some universe Russia would relinquish any effort to insinuate itself into Ukraine. I doubt this. The history of Russia clearly implies it would not give up Ukraine without a fight. Of course the invasion is still a crime.

Contrary to the authors, given the record of "color revolutions," Putin's fears of being deposed, if by degrees as Russia's near-abroad integrates into the EU, look entirely well-founded. Again, reason to expect an invasion, not to justify it, as above. They are right that NATO invasion would have been thought impracticable and unlikely (less so now, in light of the ineptitude of the Russian military). But outright NATO invasion is a straw man. That's not the way it would have happened, not the threat that motivated Putin and his oligarchy.

I would not call Stalin's appropriation of the nations to his west after WWII "imperialism." If he was really expansionist, he could have extended his influence more in Europe (especially Greece). As everybody knows, world revolution was not in the cards. Nor do I imagine Russia as expansionist now. It can hardly afford to do more than fortify its defenses.

The war will end under negotiations. But how those unfold will be subject to wide variation. Ukraine's stubbornness is its choice, and it is paying the price for it. It deserves respect.

The bottom line is that Russia's political-social-economic system stinks. Its fear of a Western-oriented Ukraine is the tip-off. It cannot compete with the EU. (By contrast, the PRC appears to be able to compete with its neighbors just fine.) It's on borrowed time. We can only hope for a dissolution with a minimum of violence. NATO might have pushed too hard, but it did not create the underlying dynamic.

What can the Western left do? Nothing. This is bigger than us. It's even bigger than the U.S. We need to focus on the fruit plausibly within reach.