U.S. Imperialism, On the Wane

It may not exactly be good news, but the U.S. drive to dominate the world is over. It had a great, bloody run, but that's in the past. It lacks the means, given the strength of the competition, and it lacks the motivation, especially with the incoming Administration. Trump may think he can bully anyone, but his vision of U.S. foreign policy is diminished and highly idiosyncratic.

Trump will outsource Middle East policy to Israel and the Saudis, leave the European Union to be Putin's punching bag, and gaze uncomprehendingly at the rising powers of the Pacific Rim. Recall his jerking back and forth re: North Korea. Most recently, he is back to his hallucination of taking Greenland away from Denmark (a founding member of NATO), along with loose talk about the Panama Canal and Canada. It is amusing to note the amazing coincidence of the Panama talk and the tax case tied to Trump’s own companies.

The only region at all at the mercy of the U.S. is Central and South America. Europe’s economic power rivals that of the U.S., as does China’s. Africa is a bridge too far.

The U.S. has been unable to push Russia out of Ukraine and is at the point of brokering a compromise there. The Biden Administration was not able to curb the dogs of Israel. You could argue they really didn’t want to, but then you would have to agree they preferred to lose the election. As far as Taiwan goes, the reality is that the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) can do whatever it likes, and there isn't a damn thing anyone else can do about it. (Fun fact: the Chinese navy has more ships than the U.S., and it doesn't have to spread itself over two hemispheres.) At the same time, the PRC is constrained by prudential concerns, so I don’t think it’s about to go berserk. I expect they would just like to milk Taiwan as long as the latter doesn't embarrass them with postures of independence.

We all have to get used to a new world. The Russophilic bitter-enders haven't gotten the message yet, viewing Eastern Europe through reverse Cold War eyes. Trump wants to posture as agressive in foreign policy. He is dangerous but also nutty and unstable. What he clearly lacks is vision. He's no George Kennan.

You might like to point to the overwhelming advantage the U.S. enjoys in military spending, compared to the rest of the world. It is hard to nail down the right answer to this, but I would be careful about measuring military strength by spending levels. We spend a ton, but our costs are high too. To some extent U.S. defense spending is a money pit. Much hardware is overpriced and prey to cost overruns. We have an “empire of bases,” but U.S. forces are still spread out. Many of these bases serve no purpose. What is the value of stationing the U.S. Army in Western Europe? The U.S. public aversion to putting any U.S. "boots on the ground" anywhere is obvious.

As far as economics goes, world finance is not quite under U.S. control. I would say it is multinational in terms of foundational interests. It has its own internal logics. The U.S. sanctions against Russia were a flop. There isn't much the U.S. can do against the PRC; our economies are too intertwined. Technologically, there is nothing we have that they don't. Either they invented it themselves or they stole it.

In a multipolar world, world peace is more a matter of the difficult task of world governance. Maybe that means we’re in danger.