World War II In Reverse

Greenland is Trump's Sudetenland

Before most, following Orwell, I was writing about the ongoing division of the world into three super-states, the U.S. lording it over the Western Hemisphere, south of the border, the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) over the Far East, and Russia over the region formerly ruled by the U.S.S.R. The giant fly in this ointment is the bloc of residual social-democracies that comprise the European Union, possibly allied with the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada.

In this respect the USG under Trump is running WWII in reverse, with Russia taking the role of Nazi Germany, this time allied with the U.S., against Europe and NATO. This strategic shift has now been codified in official State Department or White House National Security Council documents. Among Hitler’s first moves was his claims to territory bordering Germany, such as the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. Trump’s provocation to Europe is his demand for Greenland, NATO member Denmark’s possession. Domestically, at the same time, the Trump Regime is running the Civil War in reverse.

Copenhagen

A question in my mind has been whether this strategic turn is just MAGA-weirdness that will pass or whether it reflects deeper forces in U.S. Capitalism. There is analysis to the effect that at the heart of the new push are Silicon Valley tech bros, with all sorts of loony neo-fascist enthusiasms, but for all their individual wealth, I would not say they are congruent with the U.S. capitalist class.

Another anomalous factor is the rampage of Israel in the Middle East, supported by the U.S. and indulged by the EU. Israel and the U.S. aggravate Iran, an ally of Putin, and roil the waters along Russia’s southern frontier. My only explanation is the residual politics of anti-antisemitism, in the wake of the Nazi holocaust in Europe.

Trump may think his support for Israel gives him more of a handle on Mideast oil, but most of it is out of reach or subject to U.S. influence anyway. I did a bit recently on how the importance of oil in imperialist politics tends to be exaggerated by all points along the political spectrum. The world is uncoupling from fossil fuels, and current drilling operations in the U.S. teeter on the edge of profitability.

It’s not that the U.S. wants Greenland for national security vs. Russia. Under Trump, Russia is no longer the enemy. It’s an offensive against the European Union, part of a project to bug out of Europe and leave it to the tender mercies of Putin. Thing is, this doesn’t quite scan since the EU economy is larger than that of the U.S. and Russia’s economy doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. In light of it getting bogged down in Ukraine, its military is not so scary either. The problem is the EU’s defense capacity lags the growth of its economy, though it is making moves to remedy that.

Numbskulls on the Left have failed to realize that blowing up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was a major strategic objective of Russia’s, and not for progressive reasons, for which any U.S. assault on Greenland would be nails in NATO’s coffin. Expansion of NATO under Clinton and Obama was probably part of Putin’s motivation, but by now there is ample commentary to the effect that Putin’s prime motivation was and is a desire to reanimate the U.S.S.R., minus the communism.

A corollary of the anti-NATO drive is the goal of destroying the United Nations, including all of its ancillary bodies, such as the World Health Organization. MAGA disdains any retention of the post-war institutions, of which the UN was one. The UN is for organized, public discussions across continents, global public goods, and North-to-South foreign aid, all anathema to MAGA. Trump wants to run U.S. foreign policy out of his back pocket and not be bothered by the envoys of Third World shithole countries.

International defense of the working class now hinges on the survival of the nominally social-democratic EU, the front line of which is the independence of Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic nations. In the Americas, it’s the sovereignty of Latin & South American nations. In the East, it’s the independence of Japan and South Korea. I expect the rest of Asia to be swallowed up by the PRC. It also means somehow bottling up the aggressions of Israel, don’t ask me how.

It’s a shit world, and nobody is coming to save us. At some point, the PRC and India might decide this madness is not good for them and they will taper some of their indulgence of Putin’s adventurism. Hopefully the EU can grow its military to match its economic scope. If I was younger, I would be casting around for some way to achieve citizenship in an EU country, or at least a residency visa and/or a passport.