As Virginia goes . . .

I’ve been noticing something odd in the behavior of three of our local MAGA worthies, in ascending order of prominence: Geary Higgins, running for the lower house of the state legislature in my own neck of the woods, Loudoun County, Va.; Hung Cao, failed contestant for Congress in the state’s CD10 and rumored contender for Senator Tim Kaine’s seat, which is up next year; and Governor Glenn Youngkin.

The oddness lies in the extent to which all three dwell on Trump-inspired culture war preoccupations, rather than matters pertaining to our own state politics. In other words, national politics become Virginia politics. This makes a kind of sense, since Virginia has reverted to purple-state status, one that national Democrats can ill-afford to lose when it comes to the Electoral College and the Congress. Virginia is now a prize to be won, rather than a lock for either party. It sits in the dead center of the American polar divide.

The signals may be found on Twitter, a site that I’m afraid is never going away, notwithstanding speculation to the contrary. Thus far there are few signs of other campaigning here. Every local office in the state is up this year, and campaigns are just getting off the ground (while my own has run aground).

Taking Higgins first, I did my best to skin him alive here. He’s been around forever, a son of old Loudoun. I like to remind people that the vast majority of residents in the county are newcomers, as of twenty years ago. Resentment of the influx is apparent, even on the left side of politics, but it waxes most strongly on the Right.

The old-timers, including some Democrats, say they want to preserve the rural character of the county. I like the rural character myself, such as it is, but one can read this as a reaction to our increasingly multi-racial demographics. Loudoun is rich in per capita terms, but builders keep throwing up new developments. I live in one of them. Given the tendency for high incomes to inflate the averages, it might not be obvious that there are plenty of middle-class folks here. It’s not a silk-stocking county.

From a naïve standpoint, the newcomers are perceived to bring an economic burden. They have children and they need public services. Of course, they also bring taxable incomes and retail sales. They elevate property values, incidentally creating incentives for the old-timer landowners to betray their peers by cashing out to developers.

I’ve written about this in the national context of immigration policy. Immigrants, among other virtues, are an economic boost to the U.S. The noxious politics stem from the upfront costs of their assimilation, not to mention gutter racism. Down the road, immigrants generate the same economic benefits as everybody else. They hold jobs, pay taxes, and add to the Gross Domestic Product. Some are geniuses who bring forth extraordinary benefits. Unfortunately, our dumb xenophobes don’t grasp the basic concept of investment: you put down resources now to get a payoff down the line. We should welcome immigrants, if only out of crass motives. I may be some kind of off-kilter economist, but in the profession as a whole, these are not controversial notions.

Back to Higgins, what is he talking about? From his Twitter feed, you could get the impression that his number one concern is transgender women taking all the trophies in girls’ high school sports. There have been no such episodes in the state. He has also joined the assault on our public schools under the bogus “parents’ rights” rubric. Nor is he above classic Willie Horton-style demagogy.

In the timeline of economic and social progress, Higgins is behind the curve. His opponent Rob Banse ought to be able to take advantage of that. The new Loudoun is multi-cultural, the new Republican Party of old-timer Higgins is the converse.

The cause of Hung Cao goes against the grain of Higgins’ rural stance, though cognitive dissonance has never been a problem for the Republicans. Cao comes from a family of Vietnamese immigrants. He is a Navy veteran and reputed special operative. He later had a desk job in the Defense Department and is being positioned as a defense intellectual. He is more a creature of Washington than of Virginia’s exurbs. He was soundly beaten when he tried to unseat Rep. Jennifer Wexton in VA10. My Democratic Party confidants tell me he is going after Kaine next.

Cao’s signature issue is the scandal cooked up around the prestigious Thomas Jefferson School for Science and Technology (TJSST) in Fairfax, of which he is an alumnus. Some school personnel failed to send timely notifications to families of TJSST students who won National Merit Scholar commendations. From this the MAGA rumor mill claimed, absent evidence, that this failure was the result of a misguided equity policy to avoid hurting the feelings of students who did not earn the distinctions. You can guess the demographic sorting out implied between awardees and the rest.

With the encouragement of the state’s attorney-general, this has now been blown up into a “war on merit.” It is a transparent, racist gambit to pull Asian-American Democratic voters into the MAGA fold. One of the best refutations of this caper was in the TJSST student newspaper. (One of their entertaining side remarks was, approximately, who cares about these pissant National Merit commendations, we’re building fucking satellites.) The Fairfax County School Board, under continuous attack by the locally MAGA-oriented, hired a law firm to conduct an independent investigation that also absolved the school system of undue wokeness.

Cao’s war on merit is simultaneously national and local. The local spoils of victory are coveted admission slots in TJSST. The national context of anti-anti-racism is clear: reverse-racist favoritism towards POC deprives worthy Asian students. It’s the affirmative action debate all over again. It failed with Jews, who still vote overwhelmingly Democratic. How it fares with Asians remains to be seen.

Then we have our Governor Youngkin. His career as an account manager might be over, after an involuntary retirement from the Carlyle Group in 2020. He is term-limited as governor, as of 2026. He is only 56 and he will need something to do. He has been barnstorming around the country in support of Republican candidates in a barely-disguised bid for national recognition. Thus far his polling results round down to zero.

Youngkin’s relationship with Trump has been ambiguous from the start. He garnered Trump’s endorsement in 2022, but subsequently things have gotten chilly. Trump himself reflected anger at Youngkin’s weak fealty, tweeting at one point that “’Youngkin’ sounds Chinese.”

Nevertheless, in true abused-partner fashion, Youngkin is springing to TFG’s defense against the Manhattan indictment. Otherwise, he signs onto the standard national culture wars that have gained special currency here in Virginia, including the “war on merit.”

Do we have Virginia issues? I would say, not any longer. The national ones have taken root locally, including those that germinated here in the first place. I speak of Critical Race Theory being taught in public schools (it isn’t, but it should be), transgender boys molesting girls in school bathrooms (we had one incident, duly bungled by the school administration and county sheriff), and book bans (here they are canceling Stephen King, Anne Rice, and Toni Morrison).

Another state with off-year, local elections this year is New Jersey. The results in both places could color press coverage and affect public expectations, going into the make-or-break year of 2024.

I keep telling people, don’t sleep on Virginia.