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Oct 30, 2022Liked by Max B. Sawicky

Ukraine is an actor in this war, as is NATO. Russia is not an actor. Russian actions are determined by Vladimir Putin and a small coterie around him. Putin doesn't care about "Russian interests," as you or I might define them. As far as I can tell, Putin wants Russia to be a GREAT POWER. Since Russia is a gas station with nuclear missiles, it has no economic, diplomatic, or cultural heft. That leaves thuggery and domination as its pathway to GREAT POWER status. Putin's interests, then, are inconsistent with any degree of Ukrainian independence, even if Ukraine gives up some pre-2014 land. I can't see any overlap of interests until Putin is out of power.

Once Putin gets rusticated, maybe some deal involving territorial concessions from Ukraine? (De facto NATO status for Ukraine is the necessary quid pro quo.) This would depend on the new management, of course. Crimea? Sure. Immunity from the Hague? Yuck, ok. But as long as the war is about Vlad's little schmekl, I see nothing but continued bloodshed. It's not in the US interest to give Vladdie a stiffie. Nor anybody else's interest, for that matter.

China is very different. China is already a Great Power, and needn't thug itself to a simulacrum of that status. With China, we definitely want to lower the temperature.

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